Latest CBI economist forecast

Economy resilient against turbulent background.

The CBI has released its latest economic forecast. We continue to expect firm GDP growth, both in 2015 (2.4%) and 2016 (2.6%). However, this is a slight downgrade from our previous forecast (when we expected growth of 2.6% and 2.8% respectively).

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In 2015, a large part of the downgrade reflects lower growth in total fixed investment, driven by revisions to national accounts data. Much of the downgrade in 2016 is driven by a greater drag from net trade, reflecting a softer outlook for the global economy. We expect GDP growth to ease a touch in 2017 (2.4%), as rising inflation takes some of the edge off household spending.

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