19 January 2015

Northern Ireland - economic review and 2015 outlook

Economic Review & 2015 Outlook

2013 was dubbed the ‘spreadsheet recovery’. The computer said 'yes', we are technically in recovery, but the consumer said 'no', I don't feel it. 2014 saw the recovery begin to download, becoming increasingly evident in more tangible indicators such as employment, house prices, new car sales and business activity.

This economic recovery in Northern Ireland was facilitated by a marked pick-up in growth in our two most important economies – the UK and the Republic of Ireland.  They are estimated to have expanded by 3% and 5% respectively in 2014, following disappointing growth rates of 1.7% (UK) and just 0.2% (RoI) the previous year.

Economic Growth

As a result, the UK and RoI recoveries acted as a tow-truck that finally pulled the Northern Ireland economy out of the ditch that was six years of contraction. The local economy is estimated to have grown by 2% in real terms in 2014.  A similar rate of growth (1.5% - 2.0%) is expected in 2015, only the dynamics of this growth rate will have changed.  Consumer spending, stemming from real wage-growth will account for a greater share of economic growth, whilst the corporate sector should see its contribution moderate.  The UK and RoI are expected to see their growth rates slow to around 2.5% and 3.5% respectively in 2015. 

Download the full review and view the infographic below.