February 2019

Seasonal boost stimulates slight recovery in confidence

SEASONAL BOOST STIMULATES SLIGHT RECOVERY IN CONFIDENCE - EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN Q1 AS OUTPUT AND ORDER GROWTH RECEDES

A healthy seasonal boost ensured 2018 finished stronger than it started, at least as far as the volume of output and orders are concerned - however, expectations are more pragmatic for Q1.

The latest Printing Outlook survey shows 53% of printers increased output levels in the fourth quarter of 2018. A further 34% held output steady whilst 13% experienced a decline in output. The resulting balance (the difference between the ups and the downs) was +40; a significant add-on to the boost that started in Q3 and marginally above the Q4 forecast of +37.

The Q4 period has benefited from the strongest seasonal boost for three years, but not reached the levels last seen in the years preceding the 2008 financial crisis. Numerous comments from survey respondents have referred to turmoil, uncertainty and unpredictability and whilst a number of companies have traded well there are common perceptions that they are 'bucking the trend.'

In Printing Outlook this quarter:

• BPIF Brexit Barometers - to gauge and monitor confidence during Brexit negotiations and forecast conditions after Brexit.
• UK Printing and Packaging trends and forecasts - confidence, costs, pay reviews, capacity, productivity, margins, paper consumption, ink sales volumes, a new industry financial health analysis, insolvency statistics and more.
• Extra in this report - investment intentions, access to finance and late payments.
• Data, forecasts and commentary on the UK economy and the advertising sector.

Thanks to all survey respondents for their participation, Printing Outlook continues to achieve very good response rates.

Sponsorship from Konica Minolta means all respondents will receive a printed copy of Printing Outlook. Please respond to the next survey in April to ensure that you receive your copy in the future.

The full Printing Outlook report is available as a free download to BPIF members using the 'More on Printing Outlook' web link below.

There is also an unrestricted press release available on the download link below.