May 2023

UK printing industry contracted in Q1 as output and orders fell

Bounceback in confidence and performance expected during Q2 as cost pressures top out.

The first quarter of 2023 has turned out to be significantly more challenging than expected for the UK's printing and printed packaging industry. Output and orders both suffered declines in Q1 as high costs, higher prices, and subdued demand all combined to restrain production. However, the outlook for Q2 is much more positive. A climate of stubbornly high inflation, amidst a cost of living, and cost of business crisis has dampened demand for portions of the industry. An expected easing of cost pressures in the current quarter underlies the revived expectations for orders and output in Q2.

The latest Printing Outlook survey reveals that one-third (33%) of printers managed to increase their output levels in the first quarter of 2023, a further 29% were able to hold output steady. However, the remaining 38% experienced a decline in their output levels. The resulting balance (the difference between the ups and the downs) was -5, below the +4 in Q4, and well below the Q1 forecast (+11). This decline in output ends the seven consecutive quarter of positive output growth that the industry has experienced as part of the recovery from the impacts of Covid and comes just as it looks as though cost increases are balancing out.